'Thinking Fan Nation:

Random musings, short shots and pigskin picks as we hope Kentucky is reminded of who they are tomorrow night …

PRUITT’S IN-STATE RECRUITING took a big step backward this week with Jay Hardy’s surprise commitment to Auburn. We should have seen this coming. We had Kevin Sherrer recruiting Hardy vs. Rodney Garner for Auburn. Hardy visited the Loveliest Village last weekend. (Rumor has it Toomer’s Corner was rolled with $100 bills, not toilet paper for the Chattanoogan). Sherrer vs. Garner, which is Pruitt’s fault, is the biggest mismatch since New Hampshire vs. Curry. Sherrer got demoted after last season. He has to have one foot out the door. Why is he recruiting one of our biggest prospects?



OUR BEST GUESS and it is only a guess, is that Brian Maurer will start at what should be a chilly Kroger Field tomorrow night. Look for Pruitt and Chaney to have a quick hook and go to Gitmo if they don’t like what they see with Maurer. Then, as the pins in J.G.’s left hand freeze, they might go back to Maurer, who quite likely will be playing in the coldest game he ever has seen.


WE’RE ENCOURAGED with some of the things we saw in the Basketball Vols’ first real game Tuesday night. Yves “St. Laurent” Pons was very good. Freshmen “Sir” Olivier Nkamhoua and Davonte Gaines both look like nice prospects, although Gaines really needs time in the vaunted S&C program of Garrett Medenwald. The competition ramps up with Murray St. next Tuesday, but not to the point a loss is very likely.


FOR AMUSEMENT ONLY (Last Week 4-2 ATS, Season 35-30): Sticks and stones, Tony. We join prestigious company in being ridiculed by you. We’ll remind you we couldn’t even buy a Vandy home game ticket with what you pay us for this less than stellar work. A two-pointer by Georgia cost us a 5-1 day as we had the Gators and 6. The UAB-Tenn total of 48 was a stone cold Under and the Vols giving only 11.5 to that quarterback was easy money as well. Yes, we’re only five games above .500 but we’ll ignore Tony’s taunts and keep prognisticatin’.


App State (Total 51) at SOUTH CAROLINA (-5.5): Dangerous game for the Gamecocks. App already has a win over North Carolina, who beat the Gamecocks in the opener. Lose this one and Will Muschamp probably goes 4-8. Pick: Cocks laying the points.


Vandy (Total 49) at FLORIDA (-26.5): The Gators are coming off a disappointing performance vs. Georgia. Vandy is consistent, ranking last in every significant offensive and defensive stat category in the league. The Commodores’ situation at QB makes the Vols’ look stable by comparison. Pick: Florida giving the points.


New Mexico St. (Total 64) at Ole Miss (-28.5): Ole Miss HC Matt Luke has done a nice job getting his team to punch above its weight against more talented SEC foes. One wonders if the Johnnies will suffer a letdown against the Aggies. Pick: Under.


Western Kentucky (Total 52.5) at ARKANSAS (-1.5): Vegas installed the piggies as a slight favorite at home. Arky HC Chad Morris appears headed for the same fate as Willie Taggart (who’s stolen more money in his career than Willie Sutton), but we have a problem with picking a team coached by Tyson Helton. Pick: Porkers giving the point and a half.


Missouri (Total 47.5) at GEORGIA (-16.5): This would be an interesting trap game for Georgia if the Mizzou offense was hitting on all cylinders, but it isn’t. Pick: Georgia giving the points.


LSU (Total 63) at ALABAMA (-6.5): Enough money came in this week to push this line down by a half point. Most of the talk has been about Tua’s ankle, which was injured by UT defender Greg Emerson. We’re going to go with the theory that the Tide program has started to crack and Joe Burrow is going to outplay Tua in a battle of first-round NFL picks. Pick: Bengal Tigers and the points.


Tennessee (Total 42) at KENTUCKY (-1): UK HC Mark Stoops’ name being bandied about for the FSU job has added a layer of intrigue this week. However, we don’t like the setup for this one. Insiders tell us Pruitt has backed off in practice as his weary team is at the end of a six-game stretch but the Wildcats are coming off an open week and have to be smarting from the whipping they took at Neyland last year. Lynn Bowden Jr. is a terrific athlete who will make plays and we don’t like what’s going on at QB with the Vols right now. Pick: Kentucky. Score: Cats 24, Vols 20.



Orange Throat
Less Wooly'

'Mark Stoops’ rebuild of Kentucky has been impressive, especially for a first-time head coach. Because of it, he should be the fall-back candidate for Florida State.

But Kentucky is still Kentucky and Tennessee is still Tennessee.

The Vols beat the Wildcats. Period. That shouldn’t change on Saturday.


Last year, Tennessee thoroughly embarrassed this generation’s greatest Kentucky football team.

Stoops’ Cats aren’t a sure-win like many previous UK have been, but it's still a team that’s lost to Mississippi State and South Carolina and is now playing a wide receiver at quarterback.

Lynn Bowden is an elusive playmaker. He’s a smaller and more shifty version of Randall Cobb, but he’s not the passing threat the Alcoa-native was. Eddie Gran has done a nice job using Bowden as more than just an emergency QB. But Jeremy Pruitt’s defense has been at its best when the opponent was one-dimensional. And these Cats are as one-dimensional as they come.


With Kentucky coming off a bye, my biggest concern is Gran has had two weeks to come up with a game plan for the Vols. Of course, the Cats haven’t been great off byes under Stoops.

In a game where 20 points could be enough to win, one or two explosive plays could be the difference. The 29 points Kentucky scored against Missouri two weeks ago was the most they’ve scored in an SEC game this year. They’re averaging only 15 points per game in league-play.

Turnovers will always be critical. Under Pruitt, Tennessee is just 1-9 when losing the turnover battle.


With temperatures in the 30s, I expect both teams to run the ball most of the time. In all four of their losses, the Cats couldn’t stop their opponent on the ground. That’s been the formula for UK victories under Stoops. Since 2017, Kentucky is 19-2 when outrushing their opponent. The Cats are 13-0 over the last two years when they run for at least 175 yards.

So it’d be a good idea for the Vols to limit Kentucky’s ground attack to under 175 yards and run well themselves.

Tackling will be a huge factor, especially against Bowden. A play that worked numerous times against Missouri was when Bowden faked a toss to the right to a running back, then cutback left and had a pulling guard blocking for him. Kentucky scored its last touchdown on this play.

Bowden also had two bad fumbles against Missouri, but the game was played in a downpour.


Larry Vaught told us on Tuesday’s show that punter Max Duffy is big weapon for Kentucky. He’s a rugby-style kicker who picked up a first down on a fake punt in their last game. On a cold night on the Kroger Field turf, Marquez Callaway not fielding a punt could result in a 20-25 yard difference in starting field position. And the Vols’ offense needs all the help it can get.


Which brings us to the quarterback situation. Despite Brian Maurer being full-go in practice for the second week in a row, I fully expect Jarrett Guarantano to take the majority of the snaps. Maybe they let JT Shrout play the first series again or open with Jauan Jennings in the WildDog, but No. 2 will be the signal-caller.

I spent a lot of time this week looking into Guarantano’s numbers this year vs SEC defenses. The results didn’t give me a lot of hope.

Guarantano has been in at quarterback for 27 drives against SEC teams this year: — One drive was kneel downs to end a half, so we’ll throw it out.


— Twice he replaced Brian Maurer during a drive (once vs UGA and once at Bama). The drive in Tuscaloosa resulted in a field goal after No. 2 missed a wide-open Jennings in the end zone.


Here’s how the other 24 JG drives have gone: — Three touchdowns

— Four made field goals (one missed)

— Four scores in eight trips to the red zone (1 TD and 3 FGs)

— 12 punts

— Four turnovers (1 INT and 3 fumbles)

— Two turnovers on downs

— Six three-and-outs

— Only eight drives produced more than one first down


— And worst of all, five times Guarantano has led drives inside SEC opponents’ 5-yard-line: two turnover on downs, one field goal, one interception and one fumble that was returned for a defensive TD. So, in drives against SEC teams when No. 2 has the Vols’ within five yards of the end zone, our opponents are out-scoring us 7-3. Incredible. Counting all the games from 2017 and 18, Guarantano has started 15 SEC games and played in a handful more. The most points Guarantano-led drives have produced in a game is 24, which happened vs both Kentucky and South Carolina last year. (The Vols scored 30 at Auburn in 2018, but the defense scored a touchdown. Special teams accounted for two touchdowns vs South Carolina this season, and Shrout threw one TD pass).

24 points might be enough to win Saturday, but Pruitt risks losing all the good will he’s built up over the last month if Tennessee comes up short with Guarantano at QB. Let's hope Tony and Throaty are hearing correct information and that Maurer is in fact going to start. Otherwise the numbers say it's going to be close because it has to be.

Hopefully his defense comes ready to play. Because we know the ceiling of #ClubGitmo.


Thanks for reading and Go Vols!

Matt Dixon (@MattDixon3)'

2019 TENNESSEE VS KENTUCKY SCOUTING REPORT

Games Scouted: 2019 Florida, Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia

WILDCAT DEFENSE vs VOLS OFFENSE

Primary Personnel Grouping: 3-4 Personnel

Sub Personnel Grouping: Nickel 4-2 (5 Defensive Backs)

Key Secondary Players: Cornerbacks Cedric Dort Jr & Brandon Echols; Nickelback Jordan Griffin

Key Front Players: Defensive Ends TJ Carter & Calvin Taylor Jr

Key Linebackers: Linebackers Jamar Watson and Kash Daniel

Volunteer Passing Game – In 2018 Josh Allen’s pass rush was the number one factor that posed a problem for the Vols passing game.  Tennessee’s pass protection has been solid throughout the season minus UAB (which we’ll give them a pass for).  Josh Allen’s replacements Josh Paschal and Jordan Wright are not in the caliber of athlete or pass rusher as the former Kentucky Wildcat.  This should once again provide ample time in the pocket for whichever quarterback takes the field.  Jarrett Guarantano has improved over the 2019 season with his timing in the pocket although he is far from perfect.  If Maurer is available, look for Tennessee to use a multitude of throwing platforms to slow down any pass rush from Kentucky.  Maurer, who’s suffered successive concussions, can ill afford to take any unnecessary hits in the pocket.  Kentucky’s linebackers Jamar Watson and Kash Daniel have struggled defending the field between the hashes.  Neither player has the overall athleticism and footspeed to contend with Tennessee running backs, tight ends and slot receiver in the middle of the field.  The misdirection pass game from opponents has presented challenges for the nickel linebackers. Across the board from cornerback to nickelback, Tennessee has superior talent in this matchup against Kentucky’s secondary.  Kentucky’s nickel defender Jordan Griffin and both cornerbacks are specific areas Tennessee can go to often and early. Tennessee can help it’s challenged quarterbacks by being committed to the run early to give its talented receivers one on one coverage during the game.

Volunteer Running Game – A high volume of 12 and 21 Personnel power runs at Kash Daniels and Jamar Watson are back on the menu again for 2019.Kentucky once again is struggling to defend the run against quality teams.  Georgia and South Carolina, who utilize 12 personnel often, had its way with the Wildcat defensive front in the downhill running game.  Kentucky’s Daniels and Watson have been consistently confronted with offensive linemen in their laps at the second level of the defense.  Neither player has the size to negate this when defending the running game.  The Bulldogs and Gamecocks at times were able to run the ball for chunks of yards.  Tennessee’s offensive line has a size advantage against the undersized Kentucky front particularly at the linebacker position.  Look for Tennessee to assert its will on Kentucky’s 3-4 front when Tennessee is in 12 personnel.

WILDCAT OFFENSE vs VOLS DEFENSE

Primary Personnel Grouping: 11 Personnel Secondary Personnel Grouping: 12 Personnel

Key Returning QB: Lynn Bowden Jr. and Sawyer Smith

Key Running Back:  Asim Rose

Key Wide Receivers: Ahmed Wagner, Lynn Bowden Jr., Allen Dailey Jr.

Tennessee Pass Defense – How much safety help Tennessee dedicates to defending Bowden Jr. will be a factor.  Teams have unsuccessfully loaded the box (in hopes of stopping the QB runs) with safety help against Bowden Jr. leaving receivers in one on one situations outside.  The Kentucky offense and Bowden Jr. when given one on one situations haven’t shown consistency connecting to wideouts.  Sawyer Smith showed promise early in his debut vs Florida but hasn’t shown consistency since recovering from injury.  When Sawyer Smith enters the contest, the Kentucky passing game lacks the consistency throwing the football.  With Sawyer in the game, Tennessee has enough pass rush and quality secondary play to bottle up UK’s passing game without blitzing.  Ahmed Wagner poses problems as a possession receiver due to his size (6’5” 230lbs) and athleticism.  The possession receiver is a former Division I basketball player who’s found his way to the football field.  Kentucky’s offense had success targeting Wagner early in the season in the Red Zone.  Wagner was used as a ‘pass catching’ tight end in 2018.  Look for the Wildcats to target Wagner in the Red Zone especially when he is aligned opposite Tennessee’s Alontae Taylor.  Typically rush lane discipline isn’t emphasized in these scouting reports due to the lack of quarterback running skills the Vols face on defense.  However, Tennessee’s pass rush (Darrel Taylor, Darrell Middleton and Kivon Bennett) must rush with purpose and focus.  Opposing defenses are paying the price immensely for lack of rush lane discipline when playing against Bowden Jr.  The converted wide receiver has a knack for making the first rusher miss and finding a path out of the pocket under duress.  Given Pruitt’s propensity to blitz and blitz often, Tennessee must maintain gap integrity while pressuring Bowden Jr.

Tennessee Run Defense – Kudos to the Wildcat Coaching Staff for winning the battle of checkers vs chess in the run game.  The Wildcat offense has been forced to reinvent itself on the run with untimely injuries in 2019.  Kentucky has a found a gem in the Lynn Bowden Jr. for its running game.  Teams have unsuccessfully attempted to ‘load the box’ against Lynn Bowden Jr. with extra defenders.  Kentucky has masterfully gone to the ‘plus one’ quarterback run game with Lynn Bowden Jr.  Teams have assumed with Bowden Jr.’s lack of passing experience they can play man to man and pressure him.  However, Kentucky has countered this with the ‘plus one’ run game scheme which can account for extra defenders in the box.  The Wildcats have even gotten fancy on us by implementing the ‘counter-O’ scheme which shows power one direction, but ultimately pulls a lead guard to the weak side.  It is this ability by Kentucky to adapt to the fronts it is confronted with on the run that makes them a dangerous offense.  Asim Rose was the next talent in line behind Kentucky graduate Benny Schnell.  However, early season quarterback injuries and Kentucky’s newly led Bowden Jr. offense, have caused for Kentucky to move away from the potent, traditional ground game seen in 2018.  Asim Rose however is a downhill runner with physicality.  The alterations in offensive scheme have affected his touches at the running back position.

KENTUCKY ‘X’ FACTORS

Lynn Bowden Jr. for football purists is like manna from heaven.  Players like himself are the reason there is a difference between collegiate athletics and the NFL.  Lynn Bowden Jr. is reminiscent of premier ‘dual-threat’ athletes who ended up at quarterback such as Don McPhearson (Syracuse), Donovan McNabb (Syracuse), Darian Hagan (Colorado), Eric Jones (Vanderbilt), Michael Vick (Virginia Tech) and Ronald Curry (North Carolina).  Bowden Jr. is worth every dollar of tickets sold in the name of the University of Kentucky Football.  The converted wide receiver has brought life to a waling Kentucky football team that was desperate for anything positive.  It is obvious when Bowden Jr. is at quarterback, he injects energy and confidence into this Kentucky Wildcat team.  Bowden Jr. is playing at a high level of confidence and with the crowd on his side.  If nothing else, please watch this matchup between Tennessee and Kentucky to see one of college football’s special athletes.  Bowden’s late coming to the quarterback position may be the only thing to negate his name from the Heisman conversation.  This pivotal SEC road game will be a litmus test for the Vols maturity and where the Vols are as a program.  Last year the Vols took away Kentucky’s hopes of appearing in a New Year’s Day bowl game.  Kentucky acquired it’s third and last regular season loss in Knoxville coming in ranked #11 in the nation.  The Wildcats were chasing Georgia for the SEC East tie heading into the last month of the 2018 season. Therefore, the revenge factor will be in play in Lexington.  This will likely be Jeremy Pruitt’s biggest, meaningful road test for his emergent Vols to date. 

Thank you all for reading my weekly scouting reports and thanks for your participation on the 5^th Quarter Fan Reaction.  The Crew appreciates everyone as well as their views. 

Go Vols,

Jerry Colquitt/ VFL 1990-1994

Mike Huguenin of The Athletic joined your Basiilo Show yesterday previewing the football weekend. Here are some highlights.

'The Weekend Card is an A because it has the best game of the year in LSU/Bama plus a few other intriguing games.'


Viewer Guide: Penn State @ Minnesota: Noon ESPN 'Penn State vastly more athletic. Minnesota has garbage schedule and they're barely beating people.

'Minnesota has been fortunate. Penn State has too much speed and too many athletes. Penn State and Ohio State will be a competitive football game. Franklin is a relentless recruiter. His team is really talented.'


Tennessee @ Kentucky: 7:30 SEC Network 'Getting Bowden out of Ohio a few years ago was a recruiting coup for Kentucky. He ran for 204 on Mizzou and 196 on Arkansas. He's elusive. He will will stress UT's run defense. He averaged 10 yards per carry on Mizzou. He went for over 100 on Georgia. Tennessee is better than UK. You can't let a one dimensional offense beat you. I think ultimately Tennessee wins.'


Baylor @ TCU: Noon FS1 'TCU is not very good. Baylor is a team I don't believe in. Has Gary Patterson gone stale at TCU. The last couple of years they've scuffled. They had two more QB's leave program on Wednesday.'


K State @ Texas: 3:30 ESPN 'Can you imagine if Texas loses this game? Texas was overrated in the pre-season with all the losses they had on defense from 2018. Tom Herman might just lose 5 regular season games with this team. That's surprising even with the losses.'


Wyoming @ Boise St: 10:15 ESPN Huge group of five game. This one is really worth watching. It's 6-2 Wyoming at 7-1 Boise State. Wyoming is capable. This will be an interesting game.


LSU Bama: CBS 3:30PM 'How healthy is Tua? If the game was in Baton Rouge I'd pick LSU despite Tua's health. These are high level passing offenses. Bama and LSU ... High level passing offenses. Now it's can we force a punt? This was was 9-6 in 2011. Give those head coaches credit for changing to the modern game. Both guys realized the old way wasn't going to work.'


Other Goodies Tackled By Huguenin: AAC Vs ACC Minus Clemson, which league is better. 'It would be extremely close once you got Clemson out of the way. Wake Forest is the 2nd best team in that league. Then the rest of the ACC is really bad. I mean really bad. Meanwhile in the AAC you have a bunch of pretty solid major college football teams. Memphis was impressive beating SMU last weekend. Temple is good. Cincinnati is good. Tulane is pretty good. SMU is good. It would be interesting to match up these two leagues and play it off.'



Florida State Opening: 'School is in financial trouble. They borrowed money from boosters to balance the budget. This is not a Big 10 or SEC school money wise. FSU's ticket sales are way down. They're going to lose 20 million on ticket sales alone.'


The guy to watch At FSU ... 'Mike Norvell He's a really good offensive coach. Has pretty good coaching staff. They recruit talented offensive players. Play a flashy style. He has a very low buyout. He may have some baggage. How much baggage is debatable.'



Rutgers Situation: 'You could get 11 people off the street and hang with Rutgers.

'Butch Jones name out of the hat. Schiano was there yesterday. Schiano apparently said that if Rutgers wants to play big time football we need to pony up like at least Indiana and Illinois have. They need football facilities.'