Interesting Tuesday here at Tonybasilio.com.
Today’s Question: 
Through 3 games, project Tennessee’s final record. We’ll attempt to intelligently do this on the air today.
We go inside the #'s today as a prelude to tomorrow when we REALLY go inside the #'s.
We have a debut columnist today, plus we sketch out a few details from the Butch Jones press conference.
This is usually Vol Colonel's spot but he tells me he's all written out for the time being on Butch Jones' football. This is his prerogative.
So, Vol Colonel will write about the national scene in college football as well as the SEC in tomorrow's blog.
Need your UMass/UT tickets!! We've gotten about 100 in. Need another 150 tickets for the UMASS game. We can do this, but you're going to have to spread the word or dig deep. What's another home game to you versus giving a young person the day of their life. That's what we're aiming to do with our second annual tailgate for the kids benefiting Amachi Knoxville.
Send your tickets TODAY to Tony Basilio
PO Box 26011
Knoxville, TN 37912
Tailgate With The Kids Benefiting Children of The Incarcerated.
September 23rd
Circle Park @ Tailgate Tennessee
Every child and mentor needs a ticket to the game.
Please help.
We're also furnishing a full tailgate for these children & Mentors.
Thanks To Neal Heath & Hunter Rodgers for purchasing a spot in Circle Park at Tailgate Tennessee!!
Tyler Time!!!! Tyler Wyatt who precedes me daily on WVLZ Radio in Knoxville is in with a guest column today. Give this a read and give him a call today at 10 am Eastern time to discuss.
You can find his show at this
LINK.
Tyler Wyatt
'It’s tough being a fan of an average college football team as the ups and downs of a typical season are enough to drive most of us into a straightjacket. Sure, there have been some pretty high highs (see South Carolina rally, Georgia Hail Mary), but there have also been some pretty low lows (see 2014-16 Florida, 2016 South Carolina, Vanderbilt). Through four and one quarter seasons, Butch Jones has been labeled an average football coach by many in the media nationally and somewhere between good and below average by everyone else. After Saturday’s loss to Florida a friend sent me a text that read, “I just need to accept the fact that we’re an average football program now.” After what we had to endure in Gainesville, it made me question if Butch is even an average coach at this point so I decided to take a deeper look into the numbers of Butch and his peers.
Here is a list of things that Butch Jones is above average at:
Recruiting
Winning (meaningless) bowl games
That’s it. Butch Jones is undefeated in bowl games at 3-0 at Tennessee.
My Formula: The criteria I’m using to determine whether Butch is average or not is pretty simple. It isn’t in-game coaching mistakes, chart discipline, or the successful string of ‘Life Championships’ we’ve won. In fact, the questions are pretty easy to answer because they rely mainly on winning when you’re supposed to and how you compete when you’re not.
Question 1: How does Butch stack up against the rest of the SEC coaches when he’s supposed to win?
If you think it’s fair to use Matt Luke’s three games as a barometer be my guest, but for the purpose of this test, we’re basing Butch’s success (or lack thereof) on 13 coaches. Mark Stoops (yes Mark, not Bob) at Kentucky is very good when his Wildcats are supposed to win, winning 89% of the time with a 16-2 record. Nick Saban is second, and probably the only time he’s ever been second to Kentucky in football, at 135-18 (88.2%). Dan Mullen (51-7, 87.9%) comes in at third, while Gus Malzahn at Auburn (30-5, 85.7%) sits in fourth. Five through seven is where we find the University of Tennessee and Butch Jones (29-6, 82.86%). Derek Mason and Kirby Smart (both 9-2, 81.8%) are almost equal to Butch and given Derek Mason’s success over Tennessee, you might give the edge to Mason. As a home favorite Butch fares slightly worse finding himself 6th in the conference with an 18-3 record and 85.7% winning percentage. Away from home is where Butch struggles the most as a favorite. Seven coaches boast a higher winning percentage. Fifth, sixth, eighth. Butch’s average of 6.3 out of 13 as a favorite has him almost dead in the middle of the conference.
Answer/Conclusion: Average when possessing better talent.
Question 2: How does Butch fare when Tennessee isn’t a favorite to win?
Matt Luke hasn’t been an underdog so it’s even easier to toss him aside. Out of the 13 teams in the SEC with a coach who has been there for at least one season, Butch Jones comes in near the bottom at 11th (3-15, 16.7%). Only Ed Orgeron (thanks to his Ole Miss days) and second year coach Barry Odom have a lower winning percentage when playing the underdog role. It’s tough to win when you’re not favored, I get that. Nick Saban sets the bar here as he does most places with a winning record. In fact there aren’t many coaches in college football history with a winning percentage north of fifty as an underdog. Kirby Smart comes in at second, mostly because of the short sample size (he’s won three of six to start his career). Vanderbilt and Kentucky both have won more total games and a higher percentage of those games than the Vols. Let that sink in for a second - Vanderbilt and Kentucky. We improve some in the home underdog department as Butch confidently sits at 8th. Nick Saban is tied for last here due to the fact he’s only been a home underdog one time since leaving the Big Ten. Mark Stoops, Derek Mason, Brett Bielema and Will Muschamp all have won more games as road underdogs than CBJ. Butch’s underdog numbers place him 10th in the conference.
Answer/Conclusion: WAAAY below average.
Question 3: How do Butch led teams do in conference play?
Using the same thirteen coach ranking we’ve used so far, eighth puts us below average. Numbers don’t lie. We’re not using specific timeframes to make our argument. We’re using each current coach and their records as SEC coaches. Six and half is average out of thirteen teams. If you want to pick and choose and say six or seventh is middle of the pack then you’re splitting hairs. According to the criteria we’re using, eighth is worse than either of them and that’s where we are. At 14-19 (42.4%) in SEC play, we’re closer to the bottom than the top of the conference and on the verge of being closer to the bottom of our division than the top.
Answer: Below average.
Final Question: Where does Butch Jones overall record stack up against other SEC coaches?
At 82.8%, Nick Saban is easily the best coach in the SEC and it’s not even close. Jim McElwain, Gus Malzahn, Kevin Sumlin, and Kirby ‘Small Sample’ Smart all win two out of every three games that they play, and thanks to an undefeated start, Dan Mullen is above 60% as a coach and ahead of Butch Jones. Fifth, sixth, eighth, eighth, eleventh, eleventh, eighth, seventh.
Answer/Conclusion: Below average.
Overall Conclusion: Butch Jones doesn’t sound very average to me.
Thanks for reading.
Go Vols
Tyler Wyatt'
Tyler...That's some really interesting stuff from you. I plan on discussing this piece today because it's an interesting way of looking at this coach. The sad thing about Butch Jones is that he does A LOT of things right but the stuff he does wrong is injurious to his growth while it caps his program at AVERAGE. So, I guess we agree. Under Butch Jones, Tennessee has had some wonderful moments and some to absolutely forget. It all comes out in the wash to be average.
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In Defense of Butch: Yesterday Jerry Colquitt joined our show live as soon as Butch Jones' press conference concluded with an interesting take on Jones assertion that Dormady checked out of one of the called plays inside the 10 yard line. I went back and forth with Beano as to the veracity of Jones' statement only to have Jerry call in and say that in his opinion it was obvious that Dormady checked out of something and into the pick play. The problem with the play Colquitt said is that 'Palmer didn't execute the pick properly. Furthermore, you're asking two first year players in a hostile environment to execute something perfectly.' So, Jones gets a pass from us in telling the truth.
Here's A Further Explanation From Jerry Colquitt: 'Tennessee went into 11 personnel which means 1 back and 1 tight end. When Florida DC Randy Shannon saw this he immediately got those extra db's on the line and put the safeties in the box knowing that Tennessee was going to check out of that call. Or he was saying run it at us out of your 11 personnel with both of my safeties in the box. My question is why put your receivers in that position in the first place. It was unnecessary. That wasn't close to playing the percentages there. Somebody had to be smart there. What I would've done if I had inexperienced WR's is call timeout and ask for another play. Then I would plead with the coaches to give the ball to Kelly,' Jerry Colquitt said.
In Defense of Butch (Kinda) Part II: Butch Jones was proud that they had a running play called on the play that resulted in a pick. So my math is that Tennessee had SEVEN plays from inside the 10 yard line and called ONE RUNNING PLAY TO JOHN KELLY. This guy is a trip.
Gitmo Under Center? Do you really believe that Butch Jones said that Guarantano (who somebody at our Watch Party at Bearden Hill Fieldhouse called Gitmo) hasn't practiced taking snaps under center leading up to Florida game? Or was I hearing that improperly? Why would a head coach admit that? Is that being prepared? Shouldn't they practice every type of situation with EVERY QB on that roster? Tony Robinson is going to snap about this when it's called to his attention tomorrow night on In The Pocket. I could just hear Tony now saying something like 'are you kidding me T???? No Tatano (Tony's name for Guarantano) under center in practice.
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Cheap Plug Time: In The Pocket With Tony Robinson, John Adams and yours truly airs Wednesday at 10pm on MyVLT. It's an hour long and it's totally insane. There's nothing like it. Fred White joins the show tomorrow and fireworks are going to fly.
Excited For Saturday: Pumped for our Amachi Knoxville Tailgate. Please keep your tickets coming. If you can please get by and drop your tickets at any of my remotes this week.
Today: Stover's, 4505 Asheville Highway
Wed: Copper Cellar Cumberland
Thurs: TBA
Fri: TBA
I'll be out this week and look forward to meeting you. We could really use your tickets.
Need your UMass/UT tickets!! We've gotten about 100 in. Need another 150 tickets for the UMASS game. We can do this, but you're going to have to spread the word or dig deep. What's another home game to you versus giving a young person the day of their life. That's what we're aiming to do with our second annual tailgate for the kids benefiting Amachi Knoxville.
Send your tickets TODAY to Tony Basilio
PO Box 26011
Knoxville, TN 37912
Tailgate With The Kids Benefiting Children of The Incarcerated.
September 23rd
Circle Park @ Tailgate Tennessee
Every child and mentor needs a ticket to the game.
Please help.
We're also furnishing a full tailgate for these children & Mentors.
Thanks To Neal Heath & Hunter Rodgers for purchasing a spot in Circle Park at Tailgate Tennessee!!
Did You Stay Up? CBS Sports Network replayed that Tennessee/Florida debacle last night at 11pm. CBS was billing it as an instant classic. SICKENING.
Final Thought: Bobby 'The Brain' Heenan was a great game manager. I can promise you he would’ve run the ball 6 out of 7 times inside the 10 in that Florida game. Not to mention the tricks he would’ve had up his sleeve!!! RIP Brain…
Tomorrow....
T Mail, plus Butch Jones inside the #'s plus Vol Colonel returns.
Go Vols
Tony
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FAQ's Asked Of Tony Per Our Relaunch Announcement:
Q: Tony, you didn't say anything about your daily show yesterday. Will you continue to do this?
A: Absolutely. I'm looking forward to year #24 with you.
Q: Tony, you used the word 'subscribe'. What Am I subscribing too?
A: Great question. 'Subscribe' is a misnomer. What you actually are doing if you choose to help us monthly (and we need this for budgeting reasons) is actually acting as a patron. The goal is to keep the content (ALL CONTENT, from postgame offerings to various podcasts) free for all.
Q: So, if I'm not subscribing and I'm already reading this, why give?
A: Because you value the content and our contribution to the market and you want to help us keep this stuff free for everybody.
Q: Are you going to beat us up for money all the time here?
A: Absolutely not. I will bring this up a few times heading into the football season as we attempt to meet our financial goals and create new programming. I'll also mention it in the post-game format as well as the regional programming. I will not however wear you out with this. Either you feel the need to help us or you don't. This is why I'm taking today to field some question I received after day one.
Q: What happens if this doesn't generate the revenue you're seeking?
A: We will scale back our online offerings accordingly. The blog itself could even disappear. I really don't want this to happen but will be forced to spend my time in the most profitable way necessary. That's why we're having the conversation. All my cards are on the table here.
Q: When will we be able to hear these new podcasts, like that X-Cast?
A: It's all coming soon. We premiered a new Gate Twenty Won yesterday after the Basilio Show live on the app and will debut one today from the 1980 Georgia game. As for the 'X'-Cast....I'm going to upload these in real time with minimal production. Therefore I'm hoping to get one of these up in the next 10 days. It all depends on 'X's schedule.
Q: When will Southeastern Sunday debut?
A: We're shooting for the Sunday after the first full weekend of the football season.
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