MONDAY ON MY MIND
MOSTLY; WE ARE WHAT WE THINK WE ARE: I often hear it said that Tennessee’s best seasons come when the least is expected and worst come after high preseason expectations. Heck, I’ve said it myself and set out to prove it to be the case. As research has a tendency to do I think I’ve actually uncovered the opposite. The Vols
“most” of the time -to paraphrase the late Dennis Green- ARE WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. Realizing the AP preseason and postseason polls aren’t the be-all, end-all, they are as close a measurement to expectations and production that exists. With that in mind here’s how the Vols were ranked prior to and at the conclusion of each season since 1986:
YR/ INITIAL/ FINAL/ RECORD
1986- 10/ NR 7-5
1987- 17/ 14 10-2-1
1988- 18/ NR 5-6
1989- NR/ 14 11-1
1990- 8/ 8 9-2-2
1991- 11/ 14 9-3
1992- 22/ 12 9-3
1993- 10/ 12 10-2
1994- 13/ 22 8-4
1995- 8/ 3 11-1
1996- 2/ 9 10-2
1997- 5/ 7 11-2
1998- 10/ 1 13-0
1999- 2/ 9 9-3
2000- 13/ 25 8-4
2001- 8/ 4 11-2
2002- 4/ NR 8-5
2003- 12/ 4 10-3
2004- 14/ 13 10-3
2005- 3/ NR 5-6
2006- 23/ 25 9-4
2007- 15/ 12 10-4
2008- 18/ NR 5-7
2009- NR/ NR 7-6
2010- NR/ NR 6-7
2011- NR/ NR 5-7
2012- NR/ NR 5-7
2013- NR/ NR 5-7
2014- NR/ NR 7-6
2015- NR/ 22 9-3
2016- 9/ 22 9-3
SUMMARY:
-PRESEASON RANKED 23 OF LAST 31 SEASONS. OUTPERFORMED RANKING 8 TIMES (1987, 92, 95, 98, 01, 03, 04, 07). UNDERPERFORMED 14 TIMES (88, 91, 93, 94, 96, 97, 99, 00, 02, 05, 06, 08, 16). EQUALED RANKING ONCE (1990)
-IN THE EIGHT SEASONS INITIALLY UNRANKED, RANKED IN FINAL POLL TWICE (1989, 2015)
-FOUR TIMES RANKED IN INITIAL POLL AND NOT RANKED IN FINAL (1986, 88, 2002, 05)
-PRESEASON RANKED TOP-5 FIVE TIMES (1996, 97, 99, 2002, 05); HIGHEST FINISH WAS 7TH IN 97. FINISHED NOT RANKED TWICE (2002; 05)
-RANKED IN TOP-10 IN INITIAL POLL 12 TIMES (1986, 90, 93, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 01, 02, 03, 16). FINISHED IN TOP-10 SEVEN OF THOSE SEASONS (90, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 01)
-EIGHT TOP-10 FINISHES IN LAST 31 SEASONS (1990-8; 1995-3; 1996-9; 1997-7; 1998-1; 1999-9; 2001-4; 2003-4). IN FOUR OF THOSE SEASONS (95, 98, 01, 03) THEY OUTPERFORMED THEIR INITIAL RANKING. IN 1990 THEY STARTED AND FINISHED AT #8
-2003 IS THE ONLY SEASON THE VOLS FINISHED IN THE TOP-10 (#4) WHEN THEY WEREN’T RANKED THERE INITIALLY
-BEGAN UNRANKED INITIALLY 8 SEASONS (1989, 2009, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15). FINISHED RANKED ONLY TWO OF THOSE SEASONS (1989-14; 2015-22)
WHAT DID WE LEARN?
-Most of our thoughts concerning Tennessee as a classic underachiever comes from the 2002 and 2005 seasons when the Vols were a preseason Top-5 pick and finished unranked. 1999 along with never fulfilling five Top-5 preseason rankings are often cited as well but Top-5 predictions are really easy to miss and the 99 team finished in the Top-10.
- On the other side of the coin we often think of the 1985 (not included above) and 1989 seasons -which were both unquestionable pleasant surprises- as proof the Vols often come out of nowhere. I would remind you however, that exceptional talents like Chuck Webb and Carl Pickens would never be redshirted in today’s environment and had they played 1988 would not have been disastrous nor would 89 have seemed so miraculous. 1998 is obviously another surprise but that was a consensus Top-10 preseason pick that grabbed the brass ring.
Butch Jones would also remind you Tennessee has played football for 120 years, far too long to form opinions concerning over or under achievement based on only a handful.
2017 VOL FOOTBALL FORECAST
SEPT 4- TENNESSEE 31 GEORGIA TECH 20-More afraid of cut blocks diminishing an already thin Vol D-Line than losing to the Yellow Jackets
SEPT 9- TENNESSEE 52 INDIANA STATE 10- Five-days should be plenty preparation for the Sycamores
SEPT 16- FLORIDA 24 TENNESSEE 13- Here we go again
SEPT 23- TENNESSEE 47 UMASS 13- Minutemen don’t stay in the game much longer than 60 seconds
SEPT 30- GEORGIA 27 TENNESSEE 24- Another career launched at
Cape Neyland
OCT 14- TENNESSEE 27 SOUTH CAROLINA 13- Butch gets the Muschamp gorilla off his back
OCT 21 ALABAMA 31 TENNESSEE 14- Hope we play more like 2015 than 2016
OCT 28 TENNESSEE 49 KENTUCKY 20- Get outta here with that Big Blue upset nonsense
NOV 4 TENNESSEE 52 SOUTHERN MISS 10- Free Smoothie King for everyone courtesy of Tom Marine
NOV 11 TENNESSEE 38 MISSOURI 23- I would go on a hunger strike too if I were a Tiger fan
NOV 18 LSU 23 TENNESSEE 20- Tigers get fifth straight series win
NOV 25 TENNESSEE 51 VANDY 13- Same score I predicted last season. I was a year ahead
DEC 30 TAXSLAYER BOWL TENNESSEE 30 MICHIGAN STATE 20 More 9-win; Bowl-win ammo for Jones’ rhetoric
NO SHOW BEANO UPDATE: As my late summer schedule continues to evolve I find several Fridays that I will be unable to appear with Tony this month and next. I will be unavailable the next two Fridays (July 18 & 25) and two consecutive August dates as well (Aug 18 & 25) Apologies to keep adding upcoming Friday’s that I will be AWOL but know it will mean I will be rested and ready for the Basilio Family Football/basketball season radio blitz. I intend to return to twice/weekly blogs starting in August but the two Friday no-shows may briefly interrupt that as well. Looking forward to being back to my normal schedule with Tony starting in September. Hope you have a wonderful completion to your summer and Go Big Orange.
FINAL MONDAY MUSING: Started reading CFB preseason magazines -as is my custom- on July 4th. Even Butch Jones can’t diminish my annual excitement to get it started.
