SINCE WE LAST SPOKE: 2-20-14

VOLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES LAST WEEK; MISSED THE BOAT MUCH EARLIER: Last week was one of missed opportunities for the Tennessee Basketball Vols. On Tuesday they failed to grab a win versus Florida that no-one else in the conference has on their resume; Saturday they could have thrown a knockout blow at a Missouri team on wobbly legs that they’re competing with for one of the final NCAA Tournament spots. The Gators were better from beyond the arc and at the charity stripe in other words the Vols fell short in threes and frees as one of Tony’s postgame show callers astutely mentioned. Against Missouri the game was lost in the paint (Mizzou outscored the Vols 40-26), in transition (Mizzou had 12 fastbreak point to the Vols zero) off turnovers (Missouri scored 23 points off TOs to the Vols 15) and off the bench (Mizzou reserves outscored Tennessee’s 17-3)
But it’s not about last week which never should have carried as much significance. Though the Vols didn’t play consistently well in either contest they did play with a passion seldom seen under this coaching staff. Had they played all season with the focus, effort and sense of urgency I saw against both Florida and Missouri the first Xavier game and debacles to follow versus UTEP, NC State, Texas A&M and Vandy would have never occurred. Under that scenario the Vols would be solidly in the tournament and the discussion would have been what last week’s losses did to their seeding rather than their chances of even making the field. With a Senior-laden team coming off two consecutive near-miss seasons it’s unfathomable that they failed to understand what it would take to avoid a repeat.

BYE WEEK; IF NOT GOODBYE WEEK: Ever since I debuted the Vols NCAA Tournament Meter Georgia has been solidly in the Can’t Afford to Lose grouping because regardless of their ambiguous lofty perch in the league standings they are not good. The Vols proved as much pounding the Bulldogs back to earth even with Jordan McRae essentially taking a night off. The remaining game of the week despite Texas A&M’s stunning victory in TBA on January 11th will be a laugher as well as Tennessee avenges their most embarrassing defeat with a thrashing of the Aggies on their home court. That will leave the Vols with four remaining regular season contests split evenly between home and the road. So without further ado here is this week’s meter

VOLS NCAA HOPES ON LIFE SUPPORT: With what is shaping up to be a CBIT-quality bottom of the NCAA Tournament Tennessee is amazingly still alive. Sitting at a paltry 16-10 (including Tusculum) and 7-6 in the SEC with only one truly quality win versus Virginia the Vols still hope to take advantage of what has to be one of the weakest fields in NCAA Tournament history. The margin for error has run out on the original tourney meter but since the Committee will apparently have to grade on the curve this season I am adding one more allowable slipup. Here is the revised roadmap to the field of 68

CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE (2) Vandy; Missouri

If the Vols drop one of these home games I believe their only hope for an NCAA Tournament invitation would be an SEC Tournament Championship.

MUST GO 2-1 OR BETTER (3) @Texas A&M, @Mississippi State, @Auburn

Here is my best guess on how the remainder of the season will unfold. As mentioned above I expect the Vols to backhand A&M into last week bringing their record to 17-10 and 8-6. The only other game I am extremely confident in is the other revenge opportunity at home on March 1st versus Vandy. The Commodores played out of their minds in Nashville and escaped with a narrow victory despite the Vols failing to realize the game had tipped off until someone told them it was halftime. The return match in TBA won’t be close and Kevin Stallings won’t be celebrating in the aftermath. That leaves games @ Mississippi State (Feb 26), @ Auburn (Mar 5) and Missouri at TBA in the season finale. I believe the Vols will drop one of the two road games making Missouri a possible “win or it’s NIT again” showdown.

BARELY BRACKETED: The Vols continue to slide down the slippery backside of the bracket but thus far have each week found a branch to hang onto to keep from free-falling into the NIT. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s moved the Vols up from his Last 4 In to Last 4 Byes along with Missouri, Minnesota and St Johns. Lunardi has the Vols as an 11 seed playing Texas in San Antonio. His CBS counterpart Jerry Palm whose latest projections do not include the Vols win over Georgia awards the Vols one of his last 4 slots as a 12 facing Georgetown in Dayton with the winner rushing to Buffalo to face Ohio State.

NOT CLOSE CUONZO: Watching the Florida game from my recliner last week it was painfully obvious that the crowd assembled in TBA to witness the biggest game of the season simply did not truly believe. I came to this conclusion due to how rarely the noise reached expected levels in a game of that magnitude and how little it took to quiet the throng the few times it happened. It made me speculate as to why Tennessee fans once so confident against Billy Donovan and his Gators had so little faith in a satisfying outcome. It had me scrambling to find Cuonzo’s team’s record in close contests. I decided to research how his Tennessee teams had done during his three year tenure in games decided by 6 points or less. I chose 6 because I feel a two-possession or less game is most indicative of a down-to-wire contest. Here is Cuonzo’s Tennessee record in what I’ve defined above as close games:

2011-12: 5-8
2012-13: 6-5
2013-14: 0-4
TOTAL: 11-17

I guess we’ve got our answer; it’s tough to believe when your staff loses 17 of 28 close games in their tenure.

SALESMAN OF THE YEAR er DECADE er PROGRAM HISTORY? I know that so far Butch Jones and staff’s first full recruiting class is nothing more than a projection but it is still amazing to me that he could have assembled such expected quality in such a short time under such dire circumstances. I would propose that it may be the greatest sales job in program history. Doug Dickey –the first master builder of my memory could sign as many as wanted and jumped out early with his willingness to welcome black players to his program when most of his SEC brethren weren’t so compassionate, tolerant or wise. Johnny Majors was a household name wearing a National Championship ring into prospects living rooms replete with tales of rebuilding two moribund programs. Phillip Fulmer could sell just how close the program was to National Prominence since the Vols not only barely missed representing the East in the inaugural SEC Championship Game during his interim season but were only two years removed from back-to-back SEC Titles (shared with Alabama and Auburn in 1989 and outright in 1990). What in the name of Derek Dooley’s tenure does Jones have to sell? The Vols have fallen on as hard of times as my long memory of the program can recall, he is not mentioned among the nation’s finest leaders and there seems to be a question about many of our administrator’s commitment to athletic excellence across the board. Butch Jones has basically set up shop selling thermals in Hell and is about to be forced to build a bigger store.

CAN’T GO WITH SLOW: The proposed college football rule change that would not allow the offense to snap the ball within the first 10 seconds of the play clock except in the last 2 minutes of each half has me wanting to SNAP RIGHT NOW! It’s not that I think it will have a dramatic effect on the whirlwind pace of modern day offenses or the game itself; it’s who I know is behind it and his questionable motives. There is no question that with so many programs employing the no huddle quick paced attack numbers are not on the side of the rule being jammed through the system. The only guy with enough pop to get a rule in the books that so few want on the table at all is Nick Saban. That’s enough to make me against it even if it made sense; which it doesn’t. The thing that really chaps my hiney is even if he had the guts to come forward and admit he is leading the charge he would hide behind a player safety mantra that is pure bunk. There is one reason and one reason only that Nick the (rhymes with Nick) wants a rule change and that is he’s having trouble stopping it. He’s just arrogant enough to believe anything he can’t stop has got to be illegal.

IN A PERFECT WORLD: Fans would never be put in a position to question whether wins were actually a good thing for the long-term health of the program.

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