The Vols did what they were expected to do against UConn. There's not really much to say about that game. The game this Saturday in Columbia, Missouri will decide whether or not this season is a failure in my opinion. If they Vols lose, they are staring at 8-4 and probably the Gator Bowl. Maybe Reliaquest. If the Vols win, they are still alive for 9-3 and the Citrus Bowl and a shot at their 2nd consecutive 10 win season. Something that hasn't happened here since 2003-04. Of course the Vols still have an outside chance to win the SEC East but they need to beat Missouri and they need a Georgia loss to Ole Miss to set up an SEC Championship play in game next week. Wins over Missouri and Georgia would likely land the Vols in their 2nd consecutive New Year's Six Bowl, which hasn't happened since 1998-99. There's also a very outside chance for the Vols to make the Playoff. For that to happen, the Vols need to win out and have Georgia lose to Ole Miss. Then they need to get revenge on Alabama in the SEC Championship game and have some teams in front of them lose. Those are the scenarios on the table. The Vols still have a lot to play for.
Tennessee has beaten Missouri 4 consecutive times and the last 3 have been blowouts. Heupel's coming out party happened against Missouri 2 years ago as the Vols rolled to a 62-24 win. Last year the Missouri game happened at this exact spot on the schedule. The Tigers played the Vols tough until the 2nd half when the Vols pulled away en route to a 66-24 win. This year's Missouri team is a lot better than those teams. This will probably be the best Missouri team the Vols have faced since 2014 when the Tigers won the East and finished 11-3. Brady Cook is one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC and is a dangerous runner and an accurate passer. Cody Schrader is the SEC's leading rusher this season and Luther Burden is a great receiver. I fully expect Burden to play by the way. Missouri's defense has been solid as well, but the good teams they've played have been able to run on them.
I think Missouri's game plan defensively will be to try to stop what Tennessee does best, which is run the ball. Milton's improvement since the Alabama game has been remarkable. His accuracy has been excellent the last 3 games. The pass where he hit Squirrel White in stride against UConn was a thing of beauty. Milton handled the crowd well at Alabama and at Kentucky, both of which are better crowds that Missouri. Even when Missouri is good. If the Vols can protect Milton, I think Heupel will put up a very nice day offensively. I just think Missouri's defensive coordinator Blake Baker vs. Josh Heupel is a mismatch. I think the Vols will be balanced and put up really good numbers through the air and on the ground.
How close this game will be is going to be decided by Tennessee's pass rush. The game plan has to be to keep Brady Cook contained and keep pressure on him. If they can't do that, then Cook will pick Tennessee's secondary apart. If it becomes that kind of game, it'll come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. Schrader is dangerous but Missouri's path to beating Tennessee is Brady Cook having a great day.
I like this spot for Tennessee. The Vols are playing their best football at a great time. Missouri is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Georgia where they played a four quarter football game but ultimately saw their hope to win the SEC East vaporize. Missouri is a good team but they aren't an elite team. I think Missouri has a let down game after the loss to Georgia and the Vols get a nice road win and their first win over a ranked team this year.
Tennessee (-1.5) 38
Missouri 28
In other games...
Michigan 24
Penn State (+4.5) 20
Washington (-9.5) 38
Utah 24
Georgia 35
Ole Miss (+10.5) 31
Alabama (-10.5) 42
Kentucky 23
Nebraska (+2.5) 24
Maryland 21
Florida State 28
Miami (+13.5) 17
LSU (-13.5) 42
Florida 23
Oregon (-14.5) 51
USC 35
Last Week 6-2(6-1-1 ATS) Overall Record 38-18(27-27-2 ATS)
That's all I have for this week. As always I appreciate everyone who takes the time to read this. I want to thank all of you who do. We only have 2 game left after Saturday. Cherish every second of football.
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Stay safe and have a great weekend everyone. And I would like to thank all of our veterans on this Veteran's Day weekend. Our way of life and all the things that we enjoy that are pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things are made possible by these great people. Go Vols and God Bless!