SINCE WE LAST SPOKE 8-21-14

HOW TO KEEP ALIVE 7-5: A couple of weeks back Jonathan Reed started a firestorm with his contention that Tennessee Fans should EXPECT the Vols to finish no worse than 7-5 this season. As only Tony –and his Phillies bullpen- can do he fanned the flames by adding “Reed says anything less would be a failure”. I think the Twitter uproar was due to a Cool Hand Luke-like “failure to communicate”. Jon said “expect” while most heard “demand”. Reed later amended –or stated more plainly- that 6-6 would show signs of progress and be acceptable but 7-5 is not an unreasonable expectation. With that clarified I agree with young Jon 100%. This team can win 7 games and here is what they will have to do different from last season and beyond to make it happen:

START 2-0: Not long ago starting off the season with Utah State and Arkansas State would have Tennessee fans counting their chickens and the staff game planning for Oklahoma but this “ain’t” then. The Aggies and Red Wolves won the Poinsettia and GoDaddy.com bowls respectively while the Vols were home for the holidays for the third consecutive year. Utah State won the Mountain Division in their first Mountain West Conference season and Ark. State shared the Sunbelt Title. That being said both will struggle to repeat last season’s success and the Vols shouldn’t contribute to them believing otherwise. The architect of the Aggies recent success, Gary Anderson, is two years removed from campus and the catalyst Chuckie Keeton is less than a year beyond ACL/MCL surgery. They also return only 8 starters (3-offense; 5-defense) and much like the Vols face major rebuilds on both lines with only one returning starter on each side. The Red Wolves must replace QB Terrance Broadway (2149 yds passing, 19 TDs), most of their offensive line and their entire defensive front. I don’t care if their game exceeds their name the Vols should go to Norman without a blemish.

PROTECT OUR QUARTERBACK: Say what you will about the departing offensive lineman they could pass protect. Over the last three seasons they finished no lower than T-2nd in sacks allowed in the SEC (2011-18; 2012-8; 2013-15). Recently named starter Justin Worley is arguably the least mobile of Tennessee’s QB candidates but he is also the most likely to make a quick early read and deliver the ball on-time. This should aid the new O-line as it learns to function as a unit and as it becomes efficient enough to provide Worley with one extra click of time in the pocket our array of skill position players will pay dividends.

SAAAAAACK THEIR QUARTERBACK: Tennessee garnered only 18 sacks last season good for dead-last in the SEC in that crucial category. Sacks almost always result in stopping drives, changing field position and getting your defense off the field but they also plant seeds of doubt in the opposing QB’s mind that will result in ill-timed and errant throws as the game progresses. If he can stay on the field Curt Maggitt’s time spent at DE will pay huge dividends and expect Corey Vereen to make giant strides rushing the passer in his sophomore season.

END A COUPLE OF RIDICULOUS LOSING STREAKS: This just in; to quote Phil –The Mayor of SoNo- Vandy should N-E-V-E-R be on a winning streak against the Vols. Much like Utah State above, Vandy will find it nearly impossible to play at the level of the last several years without the Smoke-and Mirrors inspirational leadership of James Franklin and the miracle playmaking ability of Jordan Matthews. At their best –and our worst- Vandy was still only inches superior to the Vols in Butch Jones’ first season. All indications are the gains by Tennessee, combined with the losses suffered by Vandy will equal more than inches.

Missouri is the other rash that Tennessee must scratch. Who knows who the “real” Mizzou is? They were as bad as anyone in the league in Year-One and better than almost everyone in Year-Two. My guess is they are somewhere in-between and through the course of time we should beat them with a slightly-less regularity than we have Arkansas since their entry into the SEC (13-4). This year -in Neyland- is the perfect time to begin the correction.

KEEP THE FLIPPIN BALL: The Vols bested only Vandy (32.97%) and Kentucky (30.91) in converting third downs with a paltry 57 conversions in 159 attempts (35.85). Tennessee’s offense has been incapable of effectively running the ball in 3rd and short situations seemingly since Travis Stephens left the scene. Look no further than a failure in this area that gave Vandy one last possession which was all they needed to wreck Tennessee’s bowl aspirations last season. A completely new starting offensive line doesn’t exactly buoy hopes of improvement but their predecessors weren’t exactly 80s and 90s Nebraska-like in paving the way for RBs and a focused Marlin Lane backed up by a huge and talented Jalen Hurd just might be the difference makers that not only sustain drives but protect leads as well. By the way what happened to the Beast Package using A.J Johnson? We obviously need to can most of Derek Dooley’s hair-brained gimmicks but that approach should have remained intact.

GET THE #@$& OFF THE FIELD: God Bless Kentucky. Along with Arkansas they were the only ones keeping the 2013 Vols from being the worst in the SEC; heck maybe the worst in the world at 3rd down conversions of any kind. Not only could our offense not stay on the field our defense couldn’t find their way off. As above the Vols finished 12th in the SEC in Opponents 3rd Down Conversions allowing opposing offenses to successfully convert 3rd downs 42.5% of the time (71 of 167). Strong recruiting on the defensive side of the ball portend of better days ahead as both talent and depth increase so will big-play ability and fresh bodies on the field at critical junctures. Freshmen may not win you a lot of games but they can help get you off the field a couple of extra times per game which is all you need to move from 5 to 7 wins.

STOP THE STAMPEDE: The Vols finished 13th in the SEC in Rushing Defense in 2013 surrendering 207.33 ypg and 5.26 ypc. Texas A&M was the only team that exhibited that type run-stopping ineptitude and the Aggies had the worst defense in the history of the SEC not coordinated by a guy named Sunseiri.

CATEGORIZE TO 7-5: If we objectively break down the schedule here is another look at the journey to 7-5:

PROBABLE LOSSES: Win one of these and 7-5 becomes a likelihood rather than a hope:

@OKLAHOMA (Sept 13): Stoops thinks he has a National Championship contender and if left to his own devices would hit-and-run anything representing the SEC with the Sooner Schooner.

@GEORGIA (Sept 27): Last season’s scare at Neyland and a likely loss in their first SEC game at South Carolina will have the Dawgs on full alert

ALABAMA (Oct 10-25) I long for the year when we break the Tide’s recent strangle-hold; this probably ain’t it.

@SOUTH CAROLINA (Nov 1): There are three teams on the Gamecock's 2014 schedule that they lost to the last time they met; Georgia, Auburn and Tennessee. Here’s betting that Spurrier’s boys avenge all three.

PROBABLE WINS: Drop one of these and you’re almost assuredly heading for a program record 5 straight losing seasons

ARKANSAS STATE (Sept 6): Bowl team or not they’re from the flippin Sun Belt

UT-CHATTANOOGA (Oct 11): The last time the Mocs won in Neyland (1958) a near riot erupted

KENTUCKY (Nov 15): Both teams suffered almost irreparable setbacks at the hands of a “Joker”

@VANDY (Nov 29): The last time Vandy beat us three in a row Woodrow Wilson, Warren G Harding and Calvin Coolidge were in the White House and Babe Ruth was skinny (6 in a row from1920-26 with no game in 1924)

SWING GAMES: If the above categorization holds true the Vols need three of these four to go their way:

UTAH ST (Aug 31): Drop this one and you won’t win 7

FLORIDA (Oct 4): This above all others will set the tone for the remainder of the season. A win here probably garners another on down the road. A loss????????

@OLE MISS (Oct 18): Hugh Freeze has a one-year start on Butch Jones on the rebuild trail but this is a winnable game

MISSOURI (Nov 22): If the Vols are to begin their ascent up the SEC East hierarchy they must beat Missouri, and do it regularly.

S-K-I-N in the GAME: In this instance S-K-I-N stands for “Swift Kick in Nuts”. The section will be dedicated to uncovering painful events suffered by fans or in some cases pointing out anyone associated with the sports world that deserves to be ruptured.

Putting together my SEC strength of schedule and big game roadmap sections -that have become staples of my pre-CFB season blogs- it has become painfully obvious that SEC fans better have their titanium cups on at least two weekends every year because the league is serving up $#!+ on a shingle and charging for Filet Mignon. Check this out:

SEPTEMBER 6TH: Fla Atlantic @ Alabama; Nicholls St @ Arkansas; San Jose St @ Auburn; Eastern Mich @ Florida; Ohio @ Kentucky; Sam Houston @ LSU; UAB @ Miss State; Toledo @ Missouri; Ark State @ Tenn and Lamar @ Texas A&M.

In summary Ole Miss @ Vandy and Georgia with an open date are the two most inspiring scenarios.

Now here comes the weekend that infuriates me to no end as an SEC and CFB fan. Though not quite as many cupcakes as the week above there is no way on the next-to-last weekend of the season that we should be exposed to such rubbish as this:

NOVEMBER 22nd: Western Carolina @ Alabama; Samford @ Auburn; Eastern Kentucky @ Florida; Charleston Southern @ Georgia; South Alabama @ South Carolina

All I can tell you is start sitting on a bag of frozen peas on Sunday September 7th because it’s only 10 short weeks –and you know how football season flies by- before the league members administer another dose of testicular trauma.

OPEN DATE: As I remind you each year this weekend is just like Open Date. Get out and buy your apparel, lawn chairs, coolers, grills, big screen TVs, and corn hole sets. It’s the last College Football-less weekend of the year. GOD BLESS AMERICA!

IN A PERFECT WORLD: The Vols rebuild would be transitioning into a reload.






















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